Methodology · Downfield Score v7.0 · checked 2024 to 2025

Score check & reconciliation

Downfield makes two testable claims on its numbers: that its player score holds from one season to the next across both offense and defense, and that every play log it prints adds up to the official final score. Both checks run automatically on the archive.

Open score check in app Open sources in app Glossary: every measure defined

1. Year-over-year score check (2024 to 2025)

A single-season rating is useful only if it separates signal from small-sample noise. Below is the out-of-sample stability check from 2024 to 2025 across all seven scored positions. For offensive positions, EPA is individual play-by-play EPA per opportunity; for defensive positions (DL, LB, DB), official play-by-play assigns no individual coverage or run-fit EPA, so the EPA columns track schedule-adjusted unit defensive EPA per play allowed (where lower is better).

Position	2024 qualified	2025 matched	Retention	Score → score (r)	Raw EPA → EPA (r)	Score → next EPA (r)	Rank stability
QB (passing)	51	36	70.6%	0.423	0.242	0.322	0.438
RB (rushing)	92	57	62.0%	0.735	0.021	-0.157	0.737
WR (receiving)	142	111	78.2%	0.746	0.254	0.185	0.750
TE (receiving)	65	52	80.0%	0.726	0.322	0.202	0.724
DL (defense)	248	166	66.9%	0.633	0.219	-0.108	0.632
LB (defense)	210	149	71.0%	0.724	0.293	-0.105	0.720
DB (defense)	278	208	74.8%	0.608	0.198	0.011	0.598

QB prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and EPA.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 avg. EPA
0–24.9	6	2	33.3%	40.7	−0.236
25–49.9	22	13	59.1%	53.2	+0.083
50–74.9	15	14	93.3%	63.6	+0.082
75–100	8	7	87.5%	68.7	+0.120

Top returning quarterbacks (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 quarterbacks who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 EPA	2025 EPA
Lamar JacksonBAL	90.4	57.6	-32.8	+0.356	+0.061
Baker MayfieldTB	83.0	71.1	-11.9	+0.196	+0.063
Joe BurrowCIN	82.0	53.4	-28.6	+0.168	+0.092
Josh AllenBUF	81.1	78.0	-3.1	+0.304	+0.172
Brock PurdySF	80.8	74.6	-6.2	+0.186	+0.206
Kyler MurrayARI	76.9	59.9	-17.0	+0.111	+0.079
Patrick MahomesKC	75.8	86.5	+10.7	+0.159	+0.167
Bo NixDEN	74.2	78.8	+4.6	+0.061	+0.114
Sam DarnoldMIN -> SEA	73.5	68.2	-5.3	+0.085	+0.131
Jared GoffDET	72.1	69.3	-2.8	+0.277	+0.177

RB prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and EPA.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 avg. EPA
0–24.9	12	2	16.7%	38.8	+0.014
25–49.9	35	19	54.3%	34.6	−0.028
50–74.9	29	21	72.4%	61.9	−0.017
75–100	16	15	93.8%	70.5	−0.063

Top returning running backs (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 running backs who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 EPA	2025 EPA
Bijan RobinsonATL	92.4	91.7	-0.7	+0.056	−0.046
Saquon BarkleyPHI	88.8	71.8	-17.0	+0.099	−0.090
Jahmyr GibbsDET	88.4	84.8	-3.6	+0.140	−0.011
James ConnerARI	83.3	55.2	-28.1	0.000	−0.087
Chuba HubbardCAR	81.9	50.4	-31.5	+0.039	−0.110
Chase BrownCIN	80.0	75.4	-4.6	−0.026	−0.014
Aaron JonesMIN	79.2	62.8	-16.4	−0.053	−0.018
De'Von AchaneMIA	79.2	84.4	+5.2	−0.056	+0.059
Alvin KamaraNO	78.3	56.8	-21.5	−0.080	−0.220
Breece HallNYJ	77.9	75.7	-2.2	−0.105	−0.092

WR prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and EPA.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 avg. EPA
0–24.9	33	13	39.4%	28.0	+0.114
25–49.9	38	31	81.6%	40.7	+0.194
50–74.9	40	36	90.0%	58.6	+0.215
75–100	31	31	100.0%	77.6	+0.255

Top returning receivers (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 receivers who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 EPA	2025 EPA
Justin JeffersonMIN	95.6	75.1	-20.5	+0.417	−0.091
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	94.4	91.2	-3.2	+0.440	+0.224
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	93.4	94.5	+1.1	+0.684	+0.323
A.J. BrownPHI	92.8	87.4	-5.4	+0.637	+0.278
Drake LondonATL	89.3	89.2	-0.1	+0.238	+0.212
DeVonta SmithPHI	88.4	85.1	-3.3	+0.649	+0.490
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX	87.5	72.0	-15.5	+0.392	+0.189
Puka NacuaLA	87.4	96.5	+9.1	+0.503	+0.697
Courtland SuttonDEN	86.5	86.1	-0.4	+0.275	+0.359
Malik NabersNYG	85.9	71.6	-14.3	+0.268	+0.066

TE prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and EPA.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 avg. EPA
0–24.9	15	10	66.7%	23.0	+0.189
25–49.9	17	10	58.8%	39.7	+0.223
50–74.9	17	16	94.1%	55.3	+0.225
75–100	16	16	100.0%	73.4	+0.320

Top returning tight ends (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 tight ends who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 EPA	2025 EPA
Trey McBrideARI	95.5	92.4	-3.1	+0.334	+0.436
George KittleSF	95.3	93.6	-1.7	+0.723	+0.671
Brock BowersLV	94.0	93.1	-0.9	+0.177	+0.259
Jonnu SmithMIA -> PIT	87.1	37.6	-49.5	+0.538	+0.028
Travis KelceKC	85.9	90.2	+4.3	+0.162	+0.364
Sam LaPortaDET	84.6	85.1	+0.5	+0.379	+0.743
Hunter HenryNE	82.0	85.4	+3.4	+0.249	+0.433
T.J. HockensonMIN	80.8	62.6	-18.2	+0.153	+0.214
Cade OttonTB	79.3	68.2	-11.1	+0.144	+0.050
David NjokuCLE	79.1	49.9	-29.2	−0.075	−0.075

DL prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and schedule-adjusted unit defensive EPA allowed.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 unit def. EPA
0–24.9	53	25	47.2%	35.5	+0.016
25–49.9	77	43	55.8%	41.5	+0.031
50–74.9	65	50	76.9%	54.3	+0.021
75–100	53	48	90.6%	75.6	+0.004

Top returning defensive linemen (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 defensive linemen who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 unit EPA	2025 unit EPA
Zach AllenDEN	98.6	93.1	-5.5	−0.107	−0.078
Aidan HutchinsonDET	96.8	97.3	+0.5	−0.140	−0.019
Leonard WilliamsSEA	96.2	92.8	-3.4	−0.044	−0.122
Zach SielerMIA	95.8	77.3	-18.5	−0.031	+0.104
Maxx CrosbyLV	95.4	95.9	+0.5	+0.054	+0.049
Nick BosaSF	95.0	83.7	-11.3	+0.027	−0.083
Myles GarrettCLE	94.3	98.5	+4.2	+0.010	−0.098
George KarlaftisKC	93.6	92.3	-1.3	−0.021	+0.010
Cameron HeywardPIT	93.3	79.0	-14.3	−0.015	+0.027
Danielle HunterHOU	93.0	94.4	+1.4	−0.055	−0.144

LB prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and schedule-adjusted unit defensive EPA allowed.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 unit def. EPA
0–24.9	43	17	39.5%	29.5	+0.004
25–49.9	66	43	65.2%	42.1	+0.015
50–74.9	57	50	87.7%	57.4	−0.016
75–100	44	39	88.6%	78.2	+0.006

Top returning linebackers (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 linebackers who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 unit EPA	2025 unit EPA
Zack BaunPHI	93.2	88.3	-4.9	−0.112	−0.110
Zaire FranklinIND	92.4	83.7	-8.7	+0.018	+0.016
Nakobe DeanPHI	91.3	73.4	-17.9	−0.104	−0.154
Kaden EllissATL	91.2	82.1	-9.1	+0.065	−0.005
Blake CashmanMIN	90.6	91.0	+0.4	−0.110	−0.124
Roquan SmithBAL	90.1	84.8	-5.3	−0.048	+0.013
Jordyn BrooksMIA	89.7	89.3	-0.4	−0.012	+0.092
Robert SpillaneLV -> NE	89.4	80.0	-9.4	+0.016	−0.006
Daiyan HenleyLAC	88.2	82.7	-5.5	−0.051	−0.063
Demario DavisNO	87.3	86.2	-1.1	+0.050	−0.065

DB prior-score bands (2024 → 2025)

Players grouped by their 2024 Downfield Score tier, tracking how many re-qualified in 2025 and their average 2025 Score and schedule-adjusted unit defensive EPA allowed.

2024 score band	Prior	Matched	Retention	2025 avg. score	2025 unit def. EPA
0–24.9	58	33	56.9%	32.9	+0.030
25–49.9	68	45	66.2%	49.7	+0.020
50–74.9	108	87	80.6%	61.8	+0.031
75–100	44	43	97.7%	73.5	+0.034

Top returning defensive backs (2024 → 2025)

Highest-scored 2024 defensive backs who also qualified in 2025.

Player	2024 Score	2025 Score	Diff	2024 unit EPA	2025 unit EPA
Xavier McKinneyGB	91.5	87.9	-3.6	−0.060	+0.071
Julian LoveSEA	91.3	71.3	-20.0	−0.014	−0.139
Kerby JosephDET	91.3	63.6	-27.7	−0.062	+0.028
Brian BranchDET	91.0	87.6	-3.4	−0.077	+0.055
Paulson AdeboNO -> NYG	90.6	87.9	-2.7	−0.057	+0.006
Alontae TaylorNO	89.7	86.9	-2.8	+0.057	−0.043
Brandon JonesDEN	89.5	78.4	-11.1	−0.100	−0.056
Byron MurphyMIN	87.3	75.5	-11.8	−0.079	−0.138
Jessie BatesATL	87.0	80.7	-6.3	+0.120	−0.003
Zyon McCollumTB	86.6	75.8	-10.8	+0.063	+0.056

2. Downfield Score v7.0 model specification

Each role model shrinks raw per-opportunity, per-defensive-play or per-game rates toward the league positional mean using empirical-Bayes pseudocounts (k opportunities or kg games) before converting to percentiles.

Passing (QB)

Minimum: 50 dropbacks

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Opponent-adjusted passing EPA per game	15%	k = 213 dropbacks
Early-down opponent-adjusted passing EPA per game	12%	k = 180 dropbacks
Passing yards per game, regressed	20%	k = 310 dropbacks
Rushing & scramble yards per game, regressed	16%	k = 140 dropbacks
Downfield air yards per game, regressed	10%	k = 140 dropbacks
Offensive snaps per team game, regressed	12%	k = 250 dropbacks
Completion over expected, regressed	8%	k = 326 dropbacks
Sack rate per dropback, regressed	7%	k = 310 dropbacks

Rushing (RB)

Minimum: 25 designed runs

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Carry share	25%	kg = 3 games
Target share	15%	kg = 3 games
Rushing yards per game, regressed	20%	k = 258 designed runs
Receiving yards per game, regressed	11%	k = 180 designed runs
Opponent-adjusted receiving EPA per game	7%	k = 280 designed runs
Early-down opponent-adjusted rushing EPA per game	5%	k = 220 designed runs
Offensive snaps per game, regressed	4%	k = 250 designed runs
Positive-EPA run rate, regressed	5%	k = 342 designed runs
10+ yard run rate, regressed	5%	k = 211 designed runs
Yards / run, regressed	3%	k = 258 designed runs

Receiving (WR)

Minimum: 15 targets

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Opponent-adjusted receiving EPA per game	20%	k = 280 targets
Early-down opponent-adjusted receiving EPA per game	5%	k = 220 targets
Receiving yards per game, regressed	16%	k = 180 targets
Downfield air yards per game, regressed	6%	k = 140 targets
Offensive snaps per team game, regressed	10%	k = 250 targets
Target share	30%	kg = 3 games
First-down rate, regressed	8%	k = 150 targets
20+ yard target rate, regressed	5%	k = 115 targets

Receiving (TE)

Minimum: 15 targets

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Opponent-adjusted receiving EPA per game	15%	k = 280 targets
Early-down opponent-adjusted receiving EPA per game	5%	k = 220 targets
Receiving yards per game, regressed	16%	k = 160 targets
Yards after catch per game, regressed	10%	k = 160 targets
Downfield air yards per game, regressed	3%	k = 140 targets
Offensive snaps per game, regressed	3%	k = 250 targets
Target share	34%	kg = 3 games
First-down rate, regressed	10%	k = 200 targets
20+ yard target rate, regressed	4%	k = 115 targets

Defense (DL)

Minimum: 15 defensive plays

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Defensive snaps per game, regressed	25%	k = 250 defensive plays
Pass-rush disruption per game	28%	k = 155 defensive plays
Weighted defensive disruption per game	15%	k = 220 defensive plays
Pass-rush disruption rate, regressed	13%	k = 155 defensive plays
Sack rate per opponent pass play, regressed	7%	k = 315 defensive plays
Combined tackle rate, regressed	8%	k = 385 defensive plays
Schedule-adjusted team defensive EPA / play, regressed	4%	k = 1150 defensive plays

Defense (LB)

Minimum: 15 defensive plays

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Defensive snaps per team game, regressed	8%	k = 250 defensive plays
Tackles per game	32%	k = 86 defensive plays
Weighted defensive disruption per game	14%	k = 95 defensive plays
Combined tackle rate, regressed	18%	k = 86 defensive plays
Solo tackle rate, regressed	10%	k = 137 defensive plays
Pass-rush disruption rate, regressed	10%	k = 112 defensive plays
Coverage disruption rate, regressed	4%	k = 400 defensive plays
Schedule-adjusted team defensive EPA / play, regressed	4%	k = 1150 defensive plays

Defense (DB)

Minimum: 15 defensive plays

Component	Weight	Shrinkage prior
Defensive snaps per game, regressed	30%	k = 250 defensive plays
Coverage disruptions per game	16%	k = 479 defensive plays
Weighted defensive disruption per game	22%	k = 220 defensive plays
Coverage disruption rate, regressed	9%	k = 479 defensive plays
Solo tackle rate, regressed	9%	k = 414 defensive plays
Combined tackle rate, regressed	10%	k = 240 defensive plays
Schedule-adjusted team defensive EPA / play, regressed	4%	k = 1150 defensive plays

3. Play-by-play score reconciliation (1999–2026)

Before Downfield draws a game's drive chart or cites its play log, it sums every touchdown, extra point, two-point conversion, field goal and safety in the play-by-play and checks that total against the official final score. Across 7,393 NFL games since 1999, 7,376 reconcile exactly. The 17 games below do not reconcile in the upstream source and have their play logs withheld.

2001 Week 16KC at JAX2001_16_KC_JAX

2001 Week 12GB at JAX2001_12_GB_JAX

2001 Week 11BAL at JAX2001_11_BAL_JAX

2001 Week 9CIN at JAX2001_09_CIN_JAX

2001 Week 6BUF at JAX2001_06_BUF_JAX

2001 Week 3CLE at JAX2001_03_CLE_JAX

2001 Week 2TEN at JAX2001_02_TEN_JAX

2001 Week 1PIT at JAX2001_01_PIT_JAX

2002 Week 16TEN at JAX2002_16_TEN_JAX

2002 Week 14CLE at JAX2002_14_CLE_JAX

2002 Week 13PIT at JAX2002_13_PIT_JAX

2002 Week 10WAS at JAX2002_10_WAS_JAX

2002 Week 8HOU at JAX2002_08_HOU_JAX

2002 Week 5PHI at JAX2002_05_PHI_JAX

2002 Week 4NYJ at JAX2002_04_NYJ_JAX

2002 Week 1IND at JAX2002_01_IND_JAX

2011 Week 13DET at NO2011_13_DET_NO

4. Sources & retrieval dates

Every dataset in Downfield is built from public play-by-play and box-score archives with reproducible SHA-256 catalog hashes.

Source	Coverage	License	Retrieved
nflverse	NFL play-by-play, player and team stats, rosters and schedules	CC BY 4.0	Oct 9, 2026
Pro Football Reference, via nflverse	Snap counts	Source archive terms	Oct 9, 2026
CollegeFootballData.com	College box scores, season rosters and draft picks	Source archive terms	Oct 26, 2026